Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem

Czasopismo : Acta Geophysica
Tytuł artykułu : Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem

Autorzy :
Nowożyński, K.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, kn@igf.edu.pl,
Ślęzak, K.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, katarzyna.slezak@igf.edu.pl,
Kądziałko-Hofmokl, M.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, magdahof@igf.edu.pl,
Szczepański, J.
Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Wrocław, Wrocław, Poland, jacek.szczepanski@ing.uni.wroc.pl,
Werner, T.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, twerner@igf.edu.pl,
Jeleńska, M.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, bogna@igf.edu.p,
Nejbert, K.
Institute of Geochemistry, Mineralogy and Petrology, Warsaw University, Warszawa, Poland, knejbert@uw.edu.pl,
Shireesha, M.
National Geophysical Research Institute, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Hyderabad, India, shireeshageo.m@gmail.com,
Harinarayana, T.
National Geophysical Research Institute, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Hyderabad, India, thari54@yahoo.com,
Romashkova, L.
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, lina@mitp.ru,
Peresan, A.
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND Group, Trieste, Italy,
Abstrakty : We perform a comparative analysis of regional and global earthquake catalogs currently available for the territory of Italy. We consider: (a) instrumental seismic catalogs provided by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma (INGV) for earthquake forecasting experiment in Italy within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP); (b) Global Hypocenters’ Data provided by the USGS/NEIC, which is currently used in the real-time earthquake prediction experiment by CN and M8S algorithms in Italy, and (c) seismological Bulletin provided by the International Seismological Centre (ISC). We discuss advantages and shortcomings of these catalogs in the context of intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction problem in Italy, including the possibility of the catalog’s combined or integrated use. Magnitude errors in the catalog can distort statistics of success-to-failure scoring and eventually falsify testing results. Therefore, the analysis of systematic and random errors in magnitude presented in Appendixes can be of significance in its own right.

Słowa kluczowe : earthquake catalogs, intermediate-term earthquake prediction, statistical data analysis,
Wydawnictwo : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Rocznik : 2013
Numer : Vol. 61, no. 3
Strony : 583 – 610
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DOI :
Cytuj : Nowożyński, K. ,Ślęzak, K. ,Kądziałko-Hofmokl, M. ,Szczepański, J. ,Werner, T. ,Jeleńska, M. ,Nejbert, K. ,Shireesha, M. ,Harinarayana, T. ,Romashkova, L. ,Peresan, A. , Analysis of Italian Earthquake catalogs in the context of intermediate-term prediction problem. Acta Geophysica Vol. 61, no. 3/2013
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