Journal : Acta Geophysica
Article : Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

Authors :
Domański, B.M.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Gnyp, A.
Carpathian Branch of Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine,,
Shanker, D.
Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India,,
Abstract : It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (MS ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ MS ≤6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the consid-ered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (Mp) not on the following main shocks magnitude Mf suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.

Keywords : seismogenic sources, earthquake generation, repeat time, time-predictable model,
Publishing house : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Publication date : 2007
Number : Vol. 55, no. 3
Page : 302 – 312

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Qute : Domański, B.M. ,Gnyp, A. ,Shanker, D. ,Shanker, D. , Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment. Acta Geophysica Vol. 55, no. 3/2007