Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

Czasopismo : Acta Geophysica
Tytuł artykułu : Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment

Autorzy :
Domański, B.M.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Gnyp, A.
Carpathian Branch of Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine,,
Shanker, D.
Department of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India,,
Abstrakty : It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad (30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (MS ≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude 4.5 ≤ MS ≤6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”. For the consid-ered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding main shock magnitude (Mp) not on the following main shocks magnitude Mf suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region.

Słowa kluczowe : seismogenic sources, earthquake generation, repeat time, time-predictable model,
Wydawnictwo : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Rocznik : 2007
Numer : Vol. 55, no. 3
Strony : 302 – 312
Bibliografia : Anagnos, T., and A.S. Kirenidjian, 1984, Stochastic time predictable model for earthquake occurrences, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 74, 6, 2593-2611.
Astiz, L., and H. Kanamori, 1984, An earthquake doublet in Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico, Phys. Earth Planet. Int. 34, 24-25.
Bufe, C.G., P.W. Harsh and R.O. Burford, 1977, Steady-state seismic slip – a precise recurrence model, Geophys. Res Lett. 4, 91-94.
Chandra, U., 1977, Earthquakes of peninsular India – A seismotectonic study, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 67, 1387-1413.
Cornell, C.A., 1968, Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 58, 1583-1606.
Gardner, J.K., and L. Knopoff, 1974, Is the sequence of earthquakes in southern California with aftershocks removed Poissonian, Bull. Sesmol. Soc. Am. 64, 1363-1368.
Grady, J.C., 1971, Deep main faults in south India, J. Geol. Soc. India 12, 56-62.
Guha, S.K., P.D. Gosavi, K. Nand, J.G. Padale and S.C. Marwadi, 1974, Koyna earthquakes (October 1963 to December 1973), Govt. of India, Central Water and Power Research Station, Khadarwwasla, Poona-24, India.
Hanks, T.C., and H. Kanamori, 1979, A moment magnitude scale, J. Geophys. Res. 84, 2348-2350.
Kirenidjian, A.S., and T. Anagnos, 1984, Stochastic slip predictable model for the earthquake occurrences, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 74, 739-755.
McNally, K.C., and J.B. Minster, 1981, Nonuniform seismic slip rates along the middle America trench, J. Geophys. Res. 86, 4949-4959.
Nishenko, S.P., and S.K. Singh, 1987, Conditional probabilities for the recurrence of large and great intraplate earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 77, 2095-2114.
Papadopoulos, G.A., and P. Voidomatis, 1987, Evidence for periodic seismicity in the inner Aegean seismic zone, Pure Appl. Geophys. 125, 613-628.
Papazachos, B.C., 1989, A time predictable model for earthquake generation in Greece, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 79, 77-84.
Purcaru, G., and H. Berckhemer, 1978, A magnitude scale for very large earthquakes, Tectonophysics 49, 189-198.
Rao, B.R., and P.S. Rao, 1984, Historical seismicity of peninsular India, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 74, 2519-2533.
Shanker, D., and E.E. Papadimitriou, 2004, Regional time predictable modeling in the Hindukush-Pamir-Himalayas region, Tectonophysics 390, 129-140.
Shimazaki, K., and T. Nakata, 1980, Time predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, 279-282.
Singh, S.K., L. Astiz and J. Havskov, 1981, Seismic gaps and recurrence periods of large earthquakes along the Mexican subduction zone – a re-examination, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 71, 827-843.
Singh, V.P., D. Shanker and J. Singh, 1992, On the validity of time-predictable model for earthquake generation in north-east India, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet. Sci.) 101, 4, 361-368.
Singh, V.P., and D. Shanker, 1992, On the seismicity and tectonic activity of the Bengal basin, Mausam 43, 4, 371-378.
US Geological Survey, Catalogue of earthquakes, 1900-2005.
Wallace, R.E., 1970, Earthquake recurrence intervals on the San Andreas fault, Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 81, 2875-2890.
Wang, S.C., K.C. McNally and R.J. Geller, 1982, Seismic strain release along the middle America Trench, Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett. 9, 182-185.
Cytuj : Domański, B.M. ,Gnyp, A. ,Shanker, D. , Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment. Acta Geophysica Vol. 55, no. 3/2007