Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Czasopismo : Acta Geophysica
Tytuł artykułu : Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Autorzy :
Saenger, E.
ETH Zurich Geological Institute, Zurich, Switzerland, erik.saenger@erdw.ethz.ch,
Madonna, C.
ETH Zurich Geological Institute, Zurich, Switzerland,
Almqvist, B.
ETH Zurich Geological Institute, Zurich, Switzerland,
Montahaei, M.
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, mmontaha@ut.ac.ir,
Oskooi, B.
Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, boskooi@ut.ac.ir,
Pal, P.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad, India, pcpal_ism@yahoo.co.in,
Mandal, D.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Indian School of Mines, Dhanbad, India, dinbandhumandal@gmail.com,
Tsapanos, T.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki, Greece, tsapanos@geo.auth.gr,
Bayrak, Y.
Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon, Turkey, bayrak@ktu.edu.tr,
Cinar, H.
Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon, Turkey, cinar@ktu.edu.tr,
Koravos, G.
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki, Greece, gkoravos@sch.gr,
Bayrak, E.
Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon, Turkey, bayrak@ktu.edu.tr,
Marzec, P.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics, and Environment Protection, Kraków, Poland, marzec@agh.edu.pl,
Niepsuj, M.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics, and Environment Protection, Kraków, Poland, magdalena.niepsuj@gmail.com,
Bała, M.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics, and Environment Protection, Kraków, Poland, bala@geol.agh.edu.pl,
Pietsch, K.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics, and Environment Protection, Kraków, Poland, pietsch@agh.edu.pl,
Xiao, L.
Key Laboratory of Geo-detection (China University of Geosciences), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China, xiaoliang@cugb.edu.cn,
Liu, X.-P.
Geological Exploration and Development Research Institute Sichuan-Changqing Drilling and Exploration Engineering Co., Chengdu, China,
Zou, C.-C.
Key Laboratory of Geo-detection (China University of Geosciences), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China,
Hu, X.-X.
Geological Exploration and Development Research Institute Sichuan-Changqing Drilling and Exploration Engineering Co., Chengdu, China,
Mao, Z. Q.
State Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China,
Shi, Y.-J.
Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Changqing Oilfield, PetroChina, Xi’an, China,
Guo, H.-P.
Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Changqing Oilfield, PetroChina, Xi’an, China,
Li, G.-R.
Research Institute of Exploration and Development, Changqing Oilfield, PetroChina, Xi’an, China,
Alam, K.
Geophysics Division, Geological Survey of Pakistan, Lahore, Pakistan, khurshaidalam@yahoo.com,
Ahmad, N.
Institute of Geology, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan, envrnet@brain.net.pk,
Shaban, A.
Conseil National des Recherches Scientifiques, Beirut, Lebanon,
Telesca, L.
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Metodologie per l’Analisi Ambientale Tito, Italy, luciano.telesca@imaa.cnr.it,
Darwich, T.
Conseil National des Recherches Scientifiques, Beirut, Lebanon,
Amacha, N.
Litani River Authority, Beirut, Lebanon,
Gac, J.
Faculty of Chemical and Process Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Warszawa Poland, J.Gac@ichip.pw.edu.pl,
Acharya, N.
Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India;, nachiketaacharya@gmail.com,
Kulkarni, M.
Statistical-Research, Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd., Noida, India,
Mohanty, U.
Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India,
Singh, A.
Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India,
Abstrakty : The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-toseasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982-2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21

Słowa kluczowe : CFSv2, CFSv1, wskaźniki monsunowe, przewidywania, monsoon rainfall, CFSv2, CFSv1, monsoon indices, prediction,
Wydawnictwo : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Rocznik : 2014
Numer : Vol. 62, no. 1
Strony : 199 – 219
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DOI :
Cytuj : Saenger, E. ,Madonna, C. ,Almqvist, B. ,Montahaei, M. ,Oskooi, B. ,Pal, P. ,Mandal, D. ,Tsapanos, T. ,Bayrak, Y. ,Cinar, H. ,Koravos, G. ,Bayrak, E. ,Marzec, P. ,Niepsuj, M. ,Bała, M. ,Pietsch, K. ,Xiao, L. ,Liu, X.-P. ,Zou, C.-C. ,Hu, X.-X. ,Mao, Z. Q. ,Shi, Y.-J. ,Guo, H.-P. ,Li, G.-R. ,Alam, K. ,Ahmad, N. ,Shaban, A. ,Telesca, L. ,Darwich, T. ,Amacha, N. ,Gac, J. ,Acharya, N. ,Kulkarni, M. ,Mohanty, U. ,Singh, A. , Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Acta Geophysica Vol. 62, no. 1/2014
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