Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model

Czasopismo : Acta Geophysica
Tytuł artykułu : Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model

Autorzy :
Vitkulin, A. V.
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski, Russia, vik@kscnet.ru,
Semenov, V. Y.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, sem@igf.edu.pl,
Majewski, E.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, emaj@igf.edu.pl,
Nenovski, P.
National Institute for Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography, Sofia, Bulgaria, nenovski@geophys.bas.bg,
Sayil, N.
Karadeniz Technical University, Engineering Faculty, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon, Turkey, sayil@ktu.edu.tr,
Abstrakty : In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordi- nates of 39°-42° N, 25°-32° E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log Tt = 0.26 Mmin+0.06 Mp – 0.56 log M0 + 13.79 and Mf = 0.63 Mmin – 0.07 Mp + 0.43 log M0 – 7.56. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0.53 and 0.35 for the first relation and 0.66 and 0.39 for the second relation, respectively. On the basis of these relations and using the occurrence time and magnitude of the last mainshocks in each seismogenic source, the probabilities of occurrence P(Δt) of the next mainshocks during the next five decades and the magnitude of the expected mainshocks were determined.

Słowa kluczowe : recurrence time, regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, interevent time, Marmara region,
Wydawnictwo : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Rocznik : 2013
Numer : Vol. 61, no. 2
Strony : 338 – 356
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Cytuj : Vitkulin, A. V. ,Semenov, V. Y. ,Majewski, E. ,Nenovski, P. ,Sayil, N. , Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model. Acta Geophysica Vol. 61, no. 2/2013