Prediction of rockburst probability given seismic energy and factors defined by the expert method of hazard evaluation (MRG)

Czasopismo : Acta Geophysica
Tytuł artykułu : Prediction of rockburst probability given seismic energy and factors defined by the expert method of hazard evaluation (MRG)

Autorzy :
Bogusz, J.
Centre of Applied Geomatics, Military University of Technology,,
Saibi, H.
Laboratory of Exploration Geophysics, Department of Earth Resources Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan,,
Verbanac, G.
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Science, Department of Geophysics, Zagreb, Croatia,,
Mustasaar, M.
Department of Geology, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia,,
Dobróka, M.
Department of Geophysics, University of Miskolc, Egyetemvaros, Miskolc, Hungary,,
Dębski, W.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Tomecka-Suchoń, S.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland,,
Kalab, Z.
VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic,,
Golik, A.
University of Silesia, Sosnowiec, Poland,,
Kalab, Z.
Institute of Geonics AS CR, Ostrava-Poruba, Czech Republic,,
Ćmiel, S.
University of Silesia, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Sosnowiec, Poland,,
Stec, K.
Central Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland,,
Kornowski, J.
Central Mining Institute, Katowice, Poland,,
Abstrakty : In this paper we suggest that conditional estimator/predictor of rockburst probability (and rockburst hazard, PT(t)) can be approximated with the formula PT(t) = P₁(Θ₁) ••• PN(₁N) • PTdyn(t), where PTdyn(t) is a time-dependent probability of rockburst given only the predicted seismic energy parameters, while Pi(Θi) are amplifying coefficients due to local geologic and mining conditions, as defined by the Expert Method of (rockburst) Hazard Evaluation (MRG) known in the Polish mining industry. All the elements of the formula are (approximately) calculable (on-line) and the resulting PT value satisfies inequalities 0 ≤ PT(t) ≤ 1. As a result, the hazard space (0-1) can be always divided into smaller subspaces (e.g., 0-10⁻⁵, 10⁻⁵-10⁻⁴, 10⁻⁴-10⁻³, 10⁻³-1), possibly named with symbols (e.g., A, B, C, D, …) called “hazard states” – which saves the prediction users from worrying of probabilities. The estimator PT can be interpreted as a formal statement of (reformulated) Comprehensive Method of Rockburst State of Hazard Evaluation, well known in Polish mining industry. The estimator PT is natural, logically consistent and physically interpretable. Due to full formalization, it can be easily generalized, incorporating relevant information from other sources/methods.

Słowa kluczowe : rockburst, rockburst hazard, hazard evaluation,
Wydawnictwo : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Rocznik : 2012
Numer : Vol. 60, no. 2
Strony : 472 – 486
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Cytuj : Bogusz, J. ,Saibi, H. ,Verbanac, G. ,Mustasaar, M. ,Dobróka, M. ,Dębski, W. ,Tomecka-Suchoń, S. ,Kalab, Z. ,Golik, A. ,Kalab, Z. ,Ćmiel, S. ,Stec, K. ,Kornowski, J. , Prediction of rockburst probability given seismic energy and factors defined by the expert method of hazard evaluation (MRG). Acta Geophysica Vol. 60, no. 2/2012