Journal : Acta Geophysica
Article : Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions

Authors :
Eshagh, M.
Division of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Geodesy, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran,,
Teisseyre, R.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Lizurek, G.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Asfahani, J.
Atomic Energy Commission, Damascus, Syria,,
Baddari, K.
Laboratory of Physics of the Earth UMBB, Boumerdes, Algeria,,
Abstract : Based on the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was developed to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes in the seis- moactive area of Zemmouri, Algeria. Firstly, the distributions of earthquake magnitudes Mi were described using the distribution function F0(m), which adjusts the magnitudes considered as independent random variables. Secondly, the obtained result, i.e., the distribution function F0(m) of the variables Mi was used to deduce the distribution functions G(x) and H(y) of the variables Yi = LogM0,i andZi = M0,i, where (Yi)i and (Zi)i are independent. Thirdly,some forecast for moments of the future earthquakes in the studied area is given.

Keywords : probabilistic model, Zemmouri seismoactive area, seismic magnitude scale, prediction,
Publishing house : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Publication date : 2013
Number : Vol. 61, no. 1
Page : 60 – 83

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Qute : Eshagh, M. ,Teisseyre, R. ,Lizurek, G. ,Asfahani, J. ,Baddari, K. ,Baddari, K. , Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions. Acta Geophysica Vol. 61, no. 1/2013