Article : Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya
Authors : Sobotka, J.University of Wrocław, Institute of Geological Sciences, Department of Structural Geology, Wrocław, Poland, firstname.lastname@example.org, Sedighi, M.K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Tehran, Iran, email@example.com, Rezaei, K.LMU University, Munich, Germany, firstname.lastname@example.org, Narayan, J.Dept. of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India, email@example.com, Rozmarynowska, A.Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, firstname.lastname@example.org, Gnyp, A.Carpathian Branch, Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine, email@example.com, Wiejacz, P.Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, firstname.lastname@example.org, Karakostas, V.Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, email@example.com, Mukhopadhyay, B.Central Headquarters, Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India, firstname.lastname@example.org,
Abstract : Tectonism in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt had generated great earthquakes in the past and will spawn more in the future. Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mb ≥ 4.5) over the years 1964–2006 in four zones of the Himalaya was analysed by nonparametric RUD method. The Z values of RUD analysis had neither rejected nor supported the null hypothesis of randomness. However, the Hurst analysis and plot, a statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series, brought out a pattern for earthquake prognostication. The pattern was a negative sloping segment representing a sluggish moment release over years, followed by a positive sloping segment indicating a sudden high moment release with occurrence of medium/large size earthquake(s). In recent past, such a negative sloping has been found in Zones B (1992–2006) and D (1998–2006), indicating an impending moderate/mega earthquake event in near future.
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Qute : Sobotka, J. ,Sedighi, M. ,Rezaei, K. ,Narayan, J. ,Rozmarynowska, A. ,Gnyp, A. ,Wiejacz, P. ,Karakostas, V. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. , Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya. Acta Geophysica Vol. 57, no. 2/2009