Journal : Acta Geophysica
Article : Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya

Authors :
Sobotka, J.
University of Wrocław, Institute of Geological Sciences, Department of Structural Geology, Wrocław, Poland, jerzysob@ing.uni.wroc.pl,
Sedighi, M.
K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Tehran, Iran, sedighi@ncc.org.ir,
Rezaei, K.
LMU University, Munich, Germany, khalil.rezaei@yahoo.com,
Narayan, J.
Dept. of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India, jaypnfeq@iitr.ernet.in,
Rozmarynowska, A.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, rozmaryn@igf.edu.pl,
Gnyp, A.
Carpathian Branch, Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine, gnyp@cb-igph.lviv.ua,
Wiejacz, P.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland, pwiejacz@igf.edu.pl,
Karakostas, V.
Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, vkarak@geo.auth.gr,
Mukhopadhyay, B.
Central Headquarters, Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India, basabmukhopadhyay@yahoo.com,
Abstract : Tectonism in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt had generated great earthquakes in the past and will spawn more in the future. Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mb ≥ 4.5) over the years 1964–2006 in four zones of the Himalaya was analysed by nonparametric RUD method. The Z values of RUD analysis had neither rejected nor supported the null hypothesis of randomness. However, the Hurst analysis and plot, a statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series, brought out a pattern for earthquake prognostication. The pattern was a negative sloping segment representing a sluggish moment release over years, followed by a positive sloping segment indicating a sudden high moment release with occurrence of medium/large size earthquake(s). In recent past, such a negative sloping has been found in Zones B (1992–2006) and D (1998–2006), indicating an impending moderate/mega earthquake event in near future.

Keywords : Himalaya, seismic moment, time series, Hurst plot,
Publishing house : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Publication date : 2009
Number : Vol. 57, no. 2
Page : 387 – 399

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DOI :
Qute : Sobotka, J. ,Sedighi, M. ,Rezaei, K. ,Narayan, J. ,Rozmarynowska, A. ,Gnyp, A. ,Wiejacz, P. ,Karakostas, V. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. , Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya. Acta Geophysica Vol. 57, no. 2/2009
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