Journal : Acta Geophysica
Article : Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya

Authors :
Sobotka, J.
University of Wrocław, Institute of Geological Sciences, Department of Structural Geology, Wrocław, Poland,,
Sedighi, M.
K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, Tehran, Iran,,
Rezaei, K.
LMU University, Munich, Germany,,
Narayan, J.
Dept. of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India,,
Rozmarynowska, A.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Gnyp, A.
Carpathian Branch, Subbotin Institute of Geophysics, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Lviv, Ukraine,,
Wiejacz, P.
Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warszawa, Poland,,
Karakostas, V.
Geophysics Department, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece,,
Mukhopadhyay, B.
Central Headquarters, Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India,,
Abstract : Tectonism in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt had generated great earthquakes in the past and will spawn more in the future. Sequential cumulative moment release data of macroearthquakes (Mb ≥ 4.5) over the years 1964–2006 in four zones of the Himalaya was analysed by nonparametric RUD method. The Z values of RUD analysis had neither rejected nor supported the null hypothesis of randomness. However, the Hurst analysis and plot, a statistical procedure to identify clustering of low and high values in a time series, brought out a pattern for earthquake prognostication. The pattern was a negative sloping segment representing a sluggish moment release over years, followed by a positive sloping segment indicating a sudden high moment release with occurrence of medium/large size earthquake(s). In recent past, such a negative sloping has been found in Zones B (1992–2006) and D (1998–2006), indicating an impending moderate/mega earthquake event in near future.

Keywords : Himalaya, seismic moment, time series, Hurst plot,
Publishing house : Instytut Geofizyki PAN
Publication date : 2009
Number : Vol. 57, no. 2
Page : 387 – 399

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Qute : Sobotka, J. ,Sedighi, M. ,Rezaei, K. ,Narayan, J. ,Rozmarynowska, A. ,Gnyp, A. ,Wiejacz, P. ,Karakostas, V. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. ,Mukhopadhyay, B. , Statistical analysis on yearly seismic moment release data to demarcate the source zone for an impending earthquake in the Himalaya. Acta Geophysica Vol. 57, no. 2/2009